Facing Reality, Not Rhetoric: Pakistan’s Strategy for a Possible Three-Front War

 By Zohaib Ahmed | The New World Disorder |12  November 2025

Pakistan stands at a rare and dangerous inflection point. The security environment has hardened across three axes: a conventional and clandestine threat from India to the east, a volatile western frontier carved by Afghan sanctuaries and cross-border militancy, and new littoral pressures in the south that threaten ports and maritime supply lines. These are not separate problems. They connect, they amplify each other, and they demand a single, coherent national response that blends military readiness, intelligence integration, and disciplined diplomacy. The Istanbul talks, the fragile ceasefire architecture, and the public fury in Islamabad are each a symptom of a broader strategic reality: ambiguity has become intolerable. mfa.gov.tr

The three fronts defined

First, the eastern axis. New Delhi’s doctrine appears calibrated to impose cost while avoiding all-out war. Expect clandestine operations, standoff strikes, supply-chain pressure on proxies, and aggressive information operations designed to shape international opinion quickly after any incident. Second, the western axis. Afghanistan has, since 2021, shifted from buffer to base. Independent reporting and U.N. monitoring have documented the emergence of the TTP as a resurgent, operational force inside Afghanistan, with estimates of roughly 6,000–6,500 fighters and a sharp rise in cross-border attacks on Pakistan. Those dynamics have transformed localized terror into a regional problem. Third, the maritime axis. Control of shallow littorals, port security and denial of access off the North Arabian Sea matter more than ever for economic resilience and deterrence; littoral platforms and coastal ISR are now force multipliers for national security. Financial Times

The three fronts, defined

1. Eastern axis, India. After the May escalation, New Delhi will likely avoid a decisive conventional strike that risks costly retaliation. Expect instead clandestine operations, remote strikes, information warfare, and proxy activation. These tactics will aim to impose costs while keeping escalation below the threshold of all-out war. India’s diplomatic messaging, and targeted information operations, will try to shape global opinion quickly after any incident.

2. Western axis, Afghanistan and insurgent sanctuaries. Militant groups with cross-border reach retain the capacity to strike inside Pakistan. Some state and non-state channels in the region create opportunities for proxies to be armed, financed, and launched. Afghanistan’s internal politics and regional actors such as Iran and Turkey will matter a great deal.

3. Maritime and littoral axis, Sir Creek and the Arabian Sea. Littoral denial and shallow water control are now central. The induction of shallow-draft hovercraft, expanded coastal ISR, and layered anti-access measures have raised the cost for any attempted maritime coercion or limited amphibious action.

What has changed, and why this matters

Operationally, Pakistan is not the country it was five years ago. Its ISR webs are deeper, unmanned systems have proliferated, and counterterrorism forces have become savvier at precision operations. At the same time, adversaries have adapted. The post-2021 landscape empowered militants with materiel left behind, and complex patronage networks now blur the lines between state and non-state action. The result is a crowded theatre where small kinetic events produce outsized political and economic fallout. External powers, including the United States, China and Gulf states, are exercising transactional influence. The result is a crowded theatre where misperception risks rapid escalation. In such a theatre, the first loss is often attribution; the second is credibility. Rapid, forensic attribution must be state policy. globalasia.org

How a conflict could unfold, the hybrid campaign

If deterrence fails, the likely conflict will be hybrid. Expect precision standoff strikes and glide munitions to be used as coercive tools, clandestine sabotage and covert actions to degrade critical nodes, proxy attacks launched from sanctuary zones, and a simultaneous battle over narratives across social media and international fora. The kinetic trigger will probably be limited, the attribution fight fierce, and the global political contest decisive. That is why Pakistan’s response must be timely, evidence-based, and proportional. The Guardian

Three-front scenarios and Pakistan’s operational priorities

Below I map three credible permutations and the operational priorities Islamabad must execute:

1. Constrained Escalation. Indian covert strikes and proxy agitation increase, TTP carries out retaliatory attacks from Afghan sanctuaries. Pakistan responds with precise counter-strikes, intensified interdiction, and public forensic disclosures.
   Priorities: fused intelligence and near-real-time attribution, hardened C2, calibrated deterrent signals to New Delhi, and legal case building for international exposure. Politico

2. Sanctuary-Triggered Spiral. Repeated cross-border attacks from Afghanistan cause retaliatory strikes, Afghan border forces interpose, refugees and cross-border civilian casualties mount, mediators lose patience and talks collapse. Pakistan escalates pressure on Kabul through sanctions, interdiction and targeted takedowns while keeping a visible but controlled military posture to avoid complete conventional escalation.
   Priorities: multilateral enforcement to choke logistics, HUMINT and SIGINT fusion to dismantle networks, humanitarian planning to handle refugee flows, and coalition messaging with China, Turkey, Qatar and Gulf partners. Al Jazeera

3. Full Three-Front Contest. Limited naval harassment in the Arabian Sea, proxy and sabotage actions against critical nodes in Sindh and Balochistan, simultaneous eastern covert operations, and sustained TTP attacks from Afghanistan produce synchronized pressure. Pakistan must deny initiative, preserve economy, and prevent escalation to general war.
   Priorities: littoral denial capabilities, fast-reaction coastal and submarine forces, layered air defence to blunt precision standoff weapons, and preauthorized legal options for proportional response. Financial Times

Concrete measures Islamabad must execute now

Operational success rests on a few non-negotiables.

• Intelligence fusion and rapid attribution. Integrate SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT and open-source forensics, prepackage disclosure narratives and legal dossiers so culpability can be proven in hours. The Istanbul joint statement’s monitoring mechanism is a step, but it must be backed by forensic standards and regional guarantors with authority to act. mfa.gov.tr

• Electronic warfare resilience. Harden navigation, deny adversary ISR and drone control, and field GNSS anti-spoofing across critical units. Spoofing and jamming reduce the effectiveness of precision defences. The Guardian

• Layered air defence and counter-glide measures. Improve sensor fusion, deploy passive detection systems, and integrate expendable decoys to survive salvo attacks from stand-off glide munitions. The Guardian

• Maritime denial posture. Expand shallow water ISR, field hovercraft and fast FACs, and fuse coastal radar with naval ASCMs to make littoral coercion costly. Protect Gwadar and Karachi as strategic economic nodes. Financial Times

• Precision offensive options. Kinetics must be surgical, legally grounded, and intelligence-led. The recent targeted takedown of specific militants demonstrates the value of precise operations over mass bombing. Indiscriminate strikes produce civilian harm and strategic backlash. The Guardian

• Diplomatic leverage and multilateral pressure. Convert tactical openings into durable gains with Beijing, Riyadh, Ankara and Doha. The utility of Turkey and Qatar as mediators demonstrates how third parties can institutionalize verification and pressure. Use economic and legal instruments to deny sanctuary. mfa.gov.tr

Politics, risk and the limits of force

Deterrence demands discipline. Overreach risks civil-military friction, refugee crises and international censure. Pakistan must synchronize legal, diplomatic and military moves before kinetic steps are taken. That means preauthorizing escalation thresholds with clear rules for evidence disclosure, legal justification and proportionality. Military action must be coupled with a political narrative that explains objectives to domestic and international audiences. Failure to do so will degrade legitimacy and invite strategic isolation. Dawn

The home front: governance and inclusion

Long-term security is not military alone. Lt Gen (Retd) Tariq Khan’s institutional introspection is right: insurgency-prone regions require integrated political narratives that offer economic opportunity and social inclusion. Pakistan must sustain nation-building projects in the Pashtun belt and Baloch lands while applying external pressure to deny militant sanctuaries. Kinetic pressure and political reintegration are complementary, not alternatives. blog.prif.org

A measured exit ramp: verification, written guarantee, and conditional carrots

Diplomacy must be exhausted but tethered to verification. Pakistan’s minimal threshold is explicit: a public, written and verifiable Afghan commitment that denounces the TTP as terrorists and Khawārij, a plan to dismantle camps and leadership layers, and a monitoring mechanism backed by regional guarantors empowered to impose penalties for violations. The Istanbul joint communiqué offered a verification architecture. That architecture can work if it has evidentiary standards, impartial observers and enforcement options. If Kabul refuses, Pakistan must be ready to ratchet non-kinetic pressure while keeping options for calibrated kinetic measures. mfa.gov.tr

Strategic Foresight Analysis by Zohaib Ahmed

I see one clear imperative: turn strategic vulnerability into managed advantage by pairing ruthless realism with surgical action, and you must move on three timelines simultaneously, immediate, short, and medium. Immediately, fuse your intelligence into a single national node that links SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT and open source, preauthorize rapid forensic disclosure, and publish carrier-grade evidence within 24 to 72 hours of any major incident so attribution defeats narrative manipulation. 

Short term, harden navigation and command resilience, field GNSS anti-spoofing, expand electronic warfare coverage along the eastern and western belts, and deploy layered sensors and passive cueing to blunt glide kits and swarm attacks; accelerate procurement and local production of 100 MRAPs and REK-type standoff kits to protect forces and extend strike depth. 

Simultaneously, operationalize littoral denial with the new hovercraft, fast attack craft and integrated coastal radars to deny any maritime coercion in Sir Creek and the North Arabian Sea. 

Diplomatically, convert windows of U.S. engagement into binding contracts, financing and market access that cannot be unwound quickly, push concrete memoranda for mineral partnerships and logistics that link Washington’s supply needs to Pakistan’s economic security, and expand institutional ties with Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh to create redundant support lines. 

Legally and informationally, prepare international cases in advance, train rapid public affairs cells to release verifiable timelines, and run targeted outreach to neutral capitals and international organizations to isolate any false-flag maker. 

Finally, reform decision protocols at the center of government: set clear escalation thresholds, decentralize tactical authority to field commanders within legal frameworks, and audit logistics and readiness monthly; if you act with speed, evidence, and calibrated force, you will deter adventurism and shape outcomes, if you hesitate, your adversaries will choose the time and place of escalation.

Final thought: prepare like you must fight, act like you want peace

We do not seek war. Prepare as if we must fight one. Pakistan’s safest posture is clarity, speed and proof. The country that can attribute quickly, show the world the evidence, and act within a predictable legal and political framework will avoid strategic surprise and win the battle for international opinion. Strategic patience mapped into capability, credibility and coalition will shape outcomes more often than raw impulse. The era of ambiguity is over. Pakistan must convert introspection into enforceable policy now, because history offers no prizes for delay.