Pakistan at the Crossroads: Tehran, Tel Aviv, and the Looming Strategic Realignment
By Zohaib Ahmed | June 14, 2025
As missiles rain down on Tel Aviv and the echoes of Operation Severe Punishment continue to reverberate across the Middle East, Pakistan finds itself at a critical inflection point in the evolving strategic chessboard. With Iran under direct hybrid siege and Israel expanding its shadow reach, Islamabad must urgently reevaluate its strategic posture. This is no longer a matter of conventional war-gaming — we are entering the era of multi-domain simulations, real-time threat matrices, and interlinked strategic calculations.
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The Geo-Strategic Threat Matrix is Morphing
In Islamabad’s war rooms and classified briefings, scenario simulations are running hot. From the PM Secretariat to the Strategic Plans Division, policymakers are revisiting worst-case frameworks. The regional and extra-regional strategic environment is no longer theoretical—it is dynamic, complex, and actively shaping itself around Pakistan.
While Iran and Pakistan share a historically mixed relationship — not fully adversarial but never truly aligned — the friction has largely remained at the sub-conventional or sub-tactical level. This is shaped by several key variables:
- A delicate and inconsistent bridge between Delhi and Tehran, built on economic, energy, and diplomatic balancing.
- Rules of Engagement (ROE) between Aabpara and the IRGC that have mostly avoided escalations.
- Gulf dynamics and international sanctions that have both constrained and redirected Iran’s geopolitical behavior.
Yet, even with these friction points, Tehran has never posed a strategic imbalance to Islamabad. However, this fragile equilibrium is now threatened.
The Soft Coup: Israel’s Real Game Plan in Iran
Contrary to public narratives, Israel’s campaign isn't primarily about Iranian nuclear sites — it is about dismantling the Iranian regime itself. This is not a kinetic war. It is a hybrid offensive aimed at collapsing Iran’s military-political structure.
With Mossad assets embedded across Iran’s civilian, political, and military architecture, Israel’s strategy is reminiscent of a soft coup. The target? Every element of state power: leadership, command-and-control, economic infrastructure, and regional deterrence capability.
The implications for Pakistan? Profound.
Collapse in Tehran = Strategic Imbalance for Islamabad
Whether Iran spirals into chaos like Libya, Syria, or Iraq, or whether a new pro-Israeli regime emerges, Pakistan will face significant consequences:
- Strategic Vacuum along Pakistan’s western border.
- Increased penetration opportunities for hostile intelligence networks.
- Loss of a buffer state that historically complicated Israel-India strategy.
- Potential surge of sectarian proxy conflicts into Pakistani territory.
This collapse opens up space for a two-front war — not necessarily kinetic, but spread across strategic, operational, tactical, and sub-tactical dimensions.
Israel-India: The Strategic-Tactical Fusion
The Israel-India military-industrial complex is now a deeply integrated ecosystem, encompassing:
- Technological supply chains
- Drone warfare
- AI-enabled ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance)
- Joint R&D labs in cyber, space, and hypersonic missile systems
- Subversion and non-kinetic warfare capabilities
What used to be soft influence operations have now merged with hard tactical engagement, such as Israeli drone operatives reportedly conducting on-ground missions during the last Pakistan-India standoff.
This network is fluid, adaptable, and now expanding its operational reach into Pakistan’s sub-conventional theatre, particularly via Baluchistan.
The Mossad-BLA-PKK Triad
The emergence of a PKK-BLA nexus, covertly aligned through Israeli and Indian support channels, represents a new hybrid threat. This triad is aimed at:
- Undermining Turkish and Pakistani border stability
- Creating pressure zones within Pakistan’s southwestern corridor
- Launching subversion campaigns via spikes, small arms, and drone warfare
All of this is allegedly being pushed via RAW-Mossad operational routes along the porous Pakistan-Iran border.
Israel’s Pre-Emptive Posture: Sanctions and Ballistic Alarm Bells
Tel Aviv has also been actively lobbying Washington to contain Pakistan’s strategic capabilities. This has manifested in:
- Sanctions against Pakistani state-owned enterprises such as the National Development Complex (NDC)
- Increasing scrutiny of Pakistan’s ballistic missile programs
- Diplomatic pressure campaigns aimed at isolating Pakistan
This is not merely defensive. It is a pre-emptive strategic posture, preparing the ground for future containment or conflict.
Air Corridor Calculations: From Syria to Pakistan
One overlooked but critical enabler of Israel’s regional aggression is the uninterrupted air corridor from Syria through Iraq and Iran. This corridor not only facilitates Israeli intelligence and drone activity, but if Iran falls, it could stretch directly to Pakistan’s western frontier.
In military planning circles, this is being watched as a potential future kinetic corridor—a nightmare scenario that could allow Israeli strikes, through proxy or direct action, to materialize on Pakistani soil.
Strategic Realignment: Pakistan’s Two-Front Nightmare
If Tehran falls, Islamabad would be exposed to a two-front strategic threat:
- Eastern Border (India): High probability of coordinated sub-conventional and tactical kinetic pressure.
- Western Border (Iran/Baluchistan): Proxy-fueled insurgency, drone strikes, and intelligence infiltration.
Even without full kinetic engagement, this imbalance grants Tel Aviv and Delhi diplomatic and strategic leverage over Islamabad — enough to force policy concessions, military posturing, or regional disengagements.
The Sideboard: China’s Quiet Game
There’s a separate Chinese layer to all of this — one involving CPEC, Gwadar, and Beijing’s own Red Line policies. But that is a different chessboard, deserving its own detailed breakdown.
Final Word: Strategic Clarity Required
Pakistan must now recognize that this is no longer about maintaining status quo or relying on legacy alliances. The collapse of the Iranian structure, even partially, is a game-altering event.
The calculations in Islamabad must be ruthless, fast, and future-focused:
- Bolster western border security
- Expand hybrid defense strategies
- Strengthen IR and diplomatic insulation
- Revisit doctrines for non-conventional warfare
The threat matrix is evolving — and Pakistan’s window for preemptive calibration is closing.
Zohaib Ahmed is the Founder of New World Disorder and a senior defense and strategic affairs analyst based in Islamabad.
Very realistic approach Pakistan should have to revisit his all policies keeping in view the Israel Irian war
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