By Zohaib Ahmed
Founder, The New World Disorder Think Tank
"Oh, what I do for the Crown Prince." These words from Donald Trump, laced with casual bravado, might end up being the preamble to the most consequential geopolitical shift in the modern Middle East.
On the surface, it looked like just another flashy Trump trip: red carpets swapped for lavender, Arabian horses lining the tarmac, and investment deals that make headlines. But if you look past the spectacle and into the sequence of moves made during this so-called diplomatic charm offensive, a more calculated design emerges—one that should ring alarm bells in every capital of the Muslim world.
The Middle East, a region long defined by its complex interplay of power, religion, and geopolitics, is once again at a pivotal juncture. Recent developments, spearheaded by U.S. President Donald Trump during his whirlwind tour of Gulf countries in May 2025, have raised eyebrows and sparked intense debate about his intentions. A $142 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, a push to expand the Abraham Accords, and the unexpected lifting of sanctions on Syria have created a seismic shift in the region’s dynamics. These moves, cloaked in the language of economic prosperity and regional stability, prompt a critical question: Is Trump setting a strategic trap for the Arab world, and by extension, the broader Muslim Ummah? This blog delves into the intricacies of Trump’s actions, their implications for key players like Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan, and the broader geopolitical realignment that appears to be unfolding.
The Grand Bargain: $142 Billion and a Silent Nod
Let’s start with the obvious: Trump didn’t fly halfway around the world with Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, and Larry Fink just to shake hands and take photos. The signing of a $142 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, coupled with over a trillion dollars in projected investments, wasn’t just about trade—it was leverage. And he used that leverage just minutes later when he called, with full confidence, for Saudi Arabia to officially join the Abraham Accords—right in front of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
That wasn’t coincidence. It was calculated theatre.
Trump knows one truth better than anyone else: if Saudi Arabia normalizes ties with Israel, the rest of the Muslim world will follow.
Syria’s Sudden Rehabilitation: The Backdoor to Legitimizing Israel
The next morning, Trump shocked the world again by lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria, conditionally. The caveat? Syria must accept Israel. In return, the new Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara would be given "a chance at greatness"—Trump’s words. The cherry on top? Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan joining the meeting via video call.
The lifting of sanctions, in place since 1979 and intensified during the Syrian Civil War, is a game-changer for a country devastated by over a decade of conflict. Former U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford emphasized the necessity of this move, noting that Syria’s reconstruction requires international capital flows, particularly from Gulf states. However, the conditions attached to this relief are telling. Trump urged al-Sharaa to sign onto the Abraham Accords, normalize ties with Israel, deport Palestinian “terrorists,” and assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers. These demands suggest that Syria’s reintegration into the international system is contingent on aligning with U.S. and Israeli interests.
This move is not merely about Syria’s reconstruction; it is a strategic maneuver to realign the region. By bringing Syria into the fold, Trump aims to weaken Iran’s influence, which has historically relied on Damascus as a conduit to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The involvement of Turkey, a NATO ally with interests in northern Syria and a rivalry with Kurdish forces, further complicates the picture. Erdogan’s support for lifting sanctions aligns with Turkey’s desire to counter Kurdish influence and stabilize its border, but it also positions Turkey as a partner in Trump’s broader strategy.
This wasn’t diplomacy. It was geopolitical blackmail masquerading as peacemaking.
Why Syria? Because the road to regional normalization must pass through old battlefields, where wounds still fester. Syria is key to convincing other Arab powers that normalization isn't betrayal—it’s survival. And bringing Erdogan into the mix gives the plan a Sunni backing that makes it palatable to the average Muslim observer.
Understanding the Abraham Accords: A Deal with Consequences
The Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, under the Trump administration, as a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states — including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. The agreements aimed to establish diplomatic, economic, and security ties, essentially sidelining the Palestinian cause in the name of "regional peace and prosperity."
But what lies beneath this headline of peace?
For Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed "champion of peace", this wasn’t just diplomacy — it was strategic branding. As a businessman turned politician, Trump knows that legacy is currency. The Abraham Accords weren’t just foreign policy; they were part of his bid for a Nobel Peace Prize, a global acknowledgment of his unique, transactional style of leadership.
By addressing the Middle East crisis like a business conflict — isolating the ‘problem child’ (Palestine), cutting separate deals with stakeholders (Arab states), and putting Israel in the investor’s chair — Trump crafted an illusion of resolution. And from a PR perspective, it worked.
But from the ground — especially in the Muslim world — it felt more like appeasement than peace.
The Bigger Game: Reconstructing the Region for Israel’s Integration
This is not about peace. It never was. This is about making Israel a permanent, normalized reality in the heart of the Muslim world. And the Abraham Accords were always the blueprint for this redesign.
The current strategy? Use economic deals, regional rivalries, and conditional rehabilitation to fold Arab states one by one into a new Middle Eastern order centered not around justice, but around Israeli acceptance.
The unspoken assumption: once Saudi Arabia joins, the dominoes fall.
Why Is Saudi Entertaining This?
One word: Iran. MBS views this as a strategic compromise. With Bashar al-Assad gone and Iranian influence in Syria waning, a reconstructed Syria under U.S. blessing offers Saudi Arabia a cleaner slate. The Crown Prince sees this deal as a buffer to limit Iranian expansionism and assert regional leadership.
Countering Iran: The Unifying Thread
A common thread in Trump’s strategy is the containment of Iran, a priority shared by Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel. The fall of Assad, Iran’s key ally in the Levant, has weakened Tehran’s regional influence, particularly its ability to supply Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia views Syria’s reintegration under a U.S.-aligned government as an opportunity to counter Iran’s presence, while Turkey seeks to limit Iran’s influence in northern Syria. Trump’s rhetoric in Riyadh, calling Iran “the most destructive force” in the Middle East, underscores this agenda.
However, Trump’s simultaneous offer of an “olive branch” to Iran, proposing a nuclear deal to ease sanctions, introduces ambiguity. This dual approach—pressure and negotiation—suggests that Trump is hedging his bets, seeking to either neutralize Iran through diplomacy or isolate it further if talks fail. Qatar’s role as a mediator, given its economic ties with Iran and its hosting of Hamas leaders, adds another layer of complexity. Trump’s visit to Doha, where he secured a $96 billion Boeing deal for Qatar Airways, indicates that Qatar is being courted as a key player in this balancing act.
Why Did Turkey Show Up?
Because Erdogan has long advocated for lifting sanctions on Syria. Turkish ambitions in northern Syria and their rivalry with Kurdish groups mean Ankara stands to gain from a stabilized Damascus. But that gain now comes at a high price: acquiescence to Israeli normalization.
The Houthis, the Ceasefire, and Netanyahu’s Isolation
Even more intriguing is the simultaneous U.S. ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthis. This was not a goodwill gesture—it was a tactical separation of files. It isolates Israel's war from the broader Middle Eastern picture, leaving Netanyahu more alone than ever.
The Houthis are no longer a pressure card. They're now a pawn in the new order, pushed aside for a cleaner playing field.
Hamas: Still Standing, Still a Reality
Even as Israel continues its campaign in Gaza, the U.S. is holding direct negotiations with Hamas, bypassing Israel. That’s not diplomacy—it’s recognition. Recognition that Hamas, despite years of war, cannot be erased from the equation.
The Gaza Conundrum: A Glaring Omission
Trump’s Middle East tour conspicuously avoided Israel, a departure from traditional U.S. diplomacy. This omission, coupled with his minimal focus on the Gaza conflict, signals a strategic pivot. While Trump briefly acknowledged that Gazans deserve a “better future,” he framed Hamas as the primary obstacle, referencing the October 7, 2023, attack. His proposal for a “freedom zone” in Gaza, mentioned during his Qatar visit, lacks detail and appears to align with Israel’s plan to displace Palestinians to southern Gaza under the guise of aid distribution.
The ongoing war in Gaza, which has killed over 114 people in recent strikes, remains a major hurdle for Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to consider a Palestinian state and his escalation of military operations have strained U.S.-Israel relations. Trump’s direct negotiations with Hamas in Qatar, leading to the release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, bypass Netanyahu and signal a willingness to engage with actors Israel deems unacceptable. This move, while pragmatic, underscores the “separation of files” strategy, where the U.S. addresses regional issues independently of Israel’s preferences.
Palestine: Silenced, Not Solved
The Abraham Accords were never about resolving the Palestinian issue. They were about silencing it. Trump’s new mega-deals are meant to drown Gaza in business deals and strategic realignments.
If the Custodians of the Two Holy Mosques agree to stand beside Tel Aviv, who in the Muslim world will resist?
The Next Domino: Pakistan
The biggest question now: What happens to Pakistan?
Economically vulnerable, politically unstable, and internationally strained—Pakistan is the perfect candidate for diplomatic pressure. If Saudi Arabia normalizes, pressure on Islamabad to “fall in line” will skyrocket.
Remember: Pakistan is the second-largest Muslim country in the world. If it signs on, it’s game over for the Palestinian cause.
And the world knows it.
Pakistan’s Precarious Position
The implications of Trump’s strategy extend beyond the Arab world to Pakistan, the second-largest Muslim-majority country. Pakistan’s economic vulnerability, political instability, and reliance on Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, make it susceptible to pressure. If Saudi Arabia normalizes with Israel, Pakistan could face a diplomatic and economic dilemma: align with the new regional order or risk isolation. I believe that Pakistan’s public, deeply empathetic to the Palestinian cause, would fiercely resist normalization, potentially leading to domestic unrest if the government acquiesces.
For Pakistan, the trap lies in its interconnectedness with the Gulf. Saudi Arabia’s potential normalization could trigger a domino effect, forcing Pakistan to confront a stark choice. It's time that Pakistan’s leadership must prepare for this scenario, as public sentiment could render normalization politically untenable. The next 2-3 weeks, as negotiations unfold, will be critical in determining whether this strategy gains traction or faces resistance
Pakistan’s Unshakable Red Line
Pakistan will not normalize relations with Israel. Not now. Not under this government. Not under this military. Not under this public’s watch.
And here's why:
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Public Sentiment Is Crystal Clear
The average Pakistani sees Israel not just as a state, but as a symbol of oppression — a regime founded on displacement, sustained through apartheid, and currently engaged in ongoing war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank. Normalizing ties while children die under airstrikes? That’s unforgivable. -
The Government & Military Stand United on This
From Imran Khan to Shehbaz Sharif, and from GHQ to street-level clerics, the red line remains. Israel cannot be accepted until Palestinians — not just in Gaza, but across all occupied territories — are given sovereignty, dignity, and a seat at the table. -
Kashmir & Palestine: A Shared Struggle
Accepting Israel now would be an insult to the Kashmiri cause, Pakistan’s other bleeding wound. How can Pakistan champion Kashmir while turning a blind eye to Palestine? Both are territories under occupation, both peoples denied basic rights, and both victims of silence from the world’s powerful.
Accepting Israel would weaken Pakistan’s argument on Kashmir in every global forum. It’s a geopolitical trap, not a strategic opportunity.
A Dangerous Turning Point
We are standing at the most dangerous juncture in Muslim political history.
This isn’t just another arms deal. It’s not just another Trump show. It’s the potential final act in a long-played drama of eroding resistance, silencing dissent, and embedding Israel into the spiritual, political, and economic heart of the Muslim world.
The Arab Crossroads: One Last Chance
For the Arab world, especially the Gulf monarchies, the Accords presented a Faustian bargain: short-term economic and technological gains in exchange for decades of solidarity with Palestine.
The tragedy? Many Arab governments accepted. Not out of trust in Israel’s intentions — but to safeguard their own survival in a region being reshaped by Iran’s rise, American disinterest, and Chinese expansion.
But this is where history will take note:
This moment may not just be remembered as a "deal of the century." It may be the last nail in the coffin for Arab unity, if Palestinians continue to be sacrificed for the sake of optics and investments.
If the Arabs don’t stand now — they might lose their physical standing forever.
Trump has just played his biggest card.
And the next few weeks may decide whether the Muslim world folds—or fights back.
"Normalize… or fall behind."
I said it before, and I will say it again:
This is bigger than any Indo-Pak war, bigger than any trade deal, bigger than any election.
Israel Today: A Genocidal Regime
Let’s not mince words: Israel is committing genocide.
Hospitals bombed. Journalists silenced. Civilians vaporized. International law ignored.
In such a scenario, normalization equals complicity.
And Pakistan will not be complicit.
Conclusion: Peace Requires Justice, Not Deals
True peace isn’t about photo ops and accords signed in gilded halls. It’s about justice. It’s about Palestinian children not living in fear. It’s about dignity before diplomacy.
Trump may have brought together nations under the guise of peace, but if that peace comes at the cost of silencing Palestinian voices — it’s nothing more than a polished betrayal.
Until Palestine is free — truly free — there will be no peace in the Muslim world.
And Pakistan will remain on the side of the oppressed — not the occupiers.
This is about identity, sovereignty, and the last remaining voices that still dare to say: Free Palestine.
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