By Zohaib Ahmed, Deep Foresight Strategist and Geopolitical Analyst
Published: May 19, 2025
In the modern “Great Game,” where global powers scramble for rare earth metals (REMs) and geopolitical dominance, Pakistan stands as a strategic titan, outwitting the “deep state”—unelected elites in intelligence, military, and corporate circles. With a recovering economy (~$16 billion in reserves,), soaring global standing, and a masterful grasp of deep state machinations, Pakistan has transformed challenges like the 2025 India-Pakistan war, the Kashmir dispute, and the 2025 Minerals Conference into triumphs. By allocating mega-mineral projects to the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and China, Pakistan secures its borders, counters India’s aggression, and shapes the global resource race. Drawing parallels to the 1947 India-Pakistan partition, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and speculative U.S. ambitions in Canada and Greenland, this blog celebrates Pakistan’s rise and envisions its leadership in a volatile world.
Background: Pakistan’s Resilient Rise
The original Great Game pitted Britain against Russia for Central Asia’s riches. Today, the U.S. and China vie for REMs—lithium, neodymium, dysprosium—vital for batteries, defense systems, and green energy. China controls ~70% of global REM production (USGS, 2025), while the U.S. seeks alternatives. Pakistan, with vast REM deposits in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Gilgit-Baltistan, is a pivotal player.
The 1947 partition, dividing British India, displaced 15 million and sparked the Kashmir conflict (BBC, 2017). In 2025, Pakistan’s economy, bolstered by a $7 billion IMF loan (2024) and $50 billion in CPEC investments, projects 3.1% growth for FY 2025-26 (). Diplomatically, Pakistan’s mediation in Gulf crises and OIC leadership elevate its global clout (Geo News, 2025). Unlike India, burdened by ~$3 trillion in public debt (IMF projections, 2025), Pakistan navigates deep state games with foresight, leveraging the 2025 Minerals Conference to assert resource supremacy.
Deep State Interests in Rare Earth Metals
The deep state—U.S. intelligence, Chinese state firms, and global corporates—craves REMs for:
Economic Dominance: REMs power trillion-dollar EV and 5G markets (Bloomberg, 2025).
Military Superiority: From drones to F-35 jets, REMs are critical (Pentagon, 2023).
Geopolitical Coercion: China’s 2010 REM export ban to Japan showed their leverage (Reuters, 2010).
Pakistan counters exploitation:
U.S. Deep State: Defense giants like Lockheed Martin ($71 billion revenue, 2024) seek REM access, but Pakistan secures U.S. protection for Balochistan.
Chinese Leverage: Beijing’s BRI eyes minerals, but Pakistan balances it with U.S. and Saudi ties.
Global Elites: Mining firms like Glencore covet Pakistan’s REMs, but strategic allocations prioritize national interests.
Scenarios: Pakistan’s Strategic Victories
1. India-Pakistan Partition and the 2025 War Triumph
The 1947 partition, a colonial tactic to weaken South Asia, left Kashmir contested. The 2025 India-Pakistan war, sparked by the April 22 Pahalgam attack (27 killed,), showcased Pakistan’s military and moral superiority.
2025 War Victory: The PAF achieved air supremacy, downing six Indian jets—three Rafales, one Su-30, one MiG-29, and one Mirage 2000—in a single day, proving the JF-17 Thunder’s dominance (The News, 2025). Pakistan’s defenses obliterated 77 Israeli-made Harop drones, crippling India’s UAV capabilities (Express Tribune, 2025).
Kashmir’s Momentum: Reasi’s lithium (5.9 million tons, GSI 2023) remains in India-Occupied Kashmir (IOK), but Pakistan’s war gains and insurgency threaten India’s control (). The PAF’s strikes on Indian positions near Reasi disrupted mining plans, positioning Pakistan to potentially influence or seize the region.
India’s Operation Sindoor: India’s May 7 strikes on nine “alleged terrorist” sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir were repelled, with Pakistan claiming six Indian aircraft downed. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty aimed to choke Pakistan’s agriculture (22.7% GDP,), but Pakistan’s resilience and global support mitigated impacts.
Deep State Role: The U.S. backs India ($20 billion arms since 2010, SIPRI), but Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence and Chinese aid ($15 billion, Xinhua 2025) raise India’s costs. Kashmiris rally behind Pakistan, echoing partition’s call for justice.
Analysis: Pakistan’s war success humiliates India’s $81 billion military (SIPRI 2024), exposing deep state overreach. By threatening Reasi’s lithium, Pakistan counters U.S.-India encirclement of China, securing U.S. concessions in Balochistan. India’s economic warfare falters as Pakistan’s allies (China, KSA) bolster its economy, unlike India’s debt-laden stagnation.
2. Russia-Ukraine: Pakistan’s Strategic Contrast
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, targeting resources like Donbas coal and lithium (Kyiv Post, 2023), displaced 8 million (UNHCR, 2025), mirroring partition’s chaos.
Russia’s Overreach: Seeking to block NATO, Russia leans on China for REM exports (Bloomberg, 2024). U.S. aid ($113 billion, CRS 2025) prolongs conflict, enriching Raytheon.
Deep State Exploitation: Western elites bleed Russia, while Chinese firms gain from Moscow’s dependence. Ukraine’s REMs remain untapped, a deep state pawn.
Pakistan’s Advantage: Unlike Ukraine, Pakistan balances U.S., China, and Saudi interests. Its 2025 war victory contrasts Ukraine’s stalemate, showcasing nuclear deterrence and economic recovery (~$16 billion reserves,).
Analysis: Ukraine’s tragedy highlights deep state manipulation. Pakistan’s strategic autonomy—evident in repelling India’s Operation Sindoor—ensures it avoids Kyiv’s fate. Russia’s missteps warn India against escalating in Kashmir, where Pakistan’s PAF dominates.
3. U.S.-Canada and Trump’s Greenland Ambitions
Trump’s 2019 bid to buy Greenland for REMs (Washington Post, 2019) and 2024 quips about invading Canada—“We’ll take their land and water!” (Fox News, 2024)—signal U.S. desperation.
Canada’s REM Wealth: Saskatchewan’s Alces Lake and Nechalacho are REM-rich (NRC, 2025). Western Canada’s conservative leanings and low population (~10 million) tempt U.S. deep state lobbies.
Deep State Pressure: The Pentagon’s 2023 REM strategy targets Canada, but NATO and USMCA deter invasion. Economic buyouts are more likely.
Pakistan’s Foresight: Islamabad sees Trump’s rhetoric as deep state posturing. By allocating Balochistan’s REMs to the U.S., Pakistan neutralizes such threats, gaining protection against India’s aggression (e.g., alleged RAW plots, The News, 2025).
Analysis: Trump’s bluster exposes U.S. vulnerability to China’s REM monopoly. Pakistan’s mineral allocations contrast Canada’s passive integration, ensuring sovereignty. A U.S. move on Canada would face global backlash, unlike Pakistan’s diplomatic finesse in countering India’s Indus Treaty suspension. A U.S. move on Canada would trigger global backlash, unlike Pakistan’s deft diplomacy.
4. 2025 Minerals Conference: Pakistan’s Global Coup
The 2025 Minerals Conference in Islamabad, attended by 50 nations, showcased Pakistan’s REM wealth (Dawn, 2025). Strategic allocations thwart deep state greed:
Balochistan (U.S.): Facing Indian threats (), Pakistan awards mega-projects to U.S. firms like MP Materials ($10 billion investment) & Barrick. U.S. military presence deters India, securing Pakistan’s south.
KSA (Refineries): Saudi Arabia’s $15 billion in Balochistan refineries (Geo News, 2025) boosts Pakistan’s energy sector, countering India’s Gulf influence.
KP and Gilgit-Baltistan (China): China’s $20 billion CPEC expansion targets REMs (Xinhua, 2025), managing Afghan threats through secure borders and economic aid.
Analysis: The conference cements Pakistan as a REM hub, balancing powers while neutralizing India’s aggression. U.S. protection in Balochistan, Saudi economic support, and Chinese security in KP/Gilgit-Baltistan showcase Pakistan’s deep state mastery, unlike India’s reactive failures post-Pahalgam.
Strategic Analysis: Pakistan’s Unstoppable Rise
As a Deep Foresight Strategist, I see Pakistan as the Great Game’s champion. The 2025 war—PAF’s downing of six Indian jets and 77 drones—shattered India’s military mythos, threatening Reasi’s lithium and earning global respect. Pakistan’s economy, with ~$16 billion in reserves and 3.1% growth projection, outperforms India’s debt-ridden ($3 trillion) stagnation. The Minerals Conference, allocating REMs to the U.S., KSA, and China, counters India’s Operation Sindoor and Indus Treaty suspension, showcasing Pakistan’s resilience.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and Chinese alliance deter India’s battered forces, while U.S. reliance on Balochistan’s REMs ensures protection. Unlike Ukraine’s quagmire or Canada’s vulnerability, Pakistan’s strategic autonomy sets a global standard. India’s defeat, compounded by internal strife (e.g., Manipur unrest, The Hindu, 2025), exposes its deep state dependence, while Pakistan’s unity and foresight herald a golden era.
“Pakistan has turned the deep state’s chessboard into its victory lap, wielding war, wealth, and wisdom to secure the Great Game’s ultimate prize: sovereignty.”
What Can the World Expect?
Pakistan’s triumph shapes a multipolar future:
Pakistan’s Leadership: As South Asia’s leader, Pakistan’s REM wealth and war victory outshine India’s decline.
India’s Fall: Reeling from 2025 losses and $3 trillion debt, India cedes influence, facing internal dissent.
Global Shift: U.S.-China rivalry pivots to Africa and the Arctic, but Pakistan’s model inspires smaller nations.
Nuclear Stability: Pakistan’s deterrence ensures South Asian peace, forcing India to negotiate over Kashmir.
Hopeful Horizon: Pakistan’s strategy—war victories, mineral mastery, diplomacy—counters deep state excess, fostering equitable resource sharing.
Navigating the Future
Pakistan stands at a crossroads, with the potential to transform its economic landscape through strategic exploitation of its mineral wealth. By carefully managing relationships with global powers and ensuring transparent, sustainable development practices, Pakistan can emerge as a key player in the global REE market.
However, this path requires vigilance against the pitfalls of over-reliance on any single partner and the challenges posed by regional instability. As the global demand for REEs continues to rise, Pakistan's decisions in the coming years will be pivotal in shaping its geopolitical and economic future.
The world will witness Pakistan’s ascendancy, a beacon against deep state machinations. I foresee nations following Pakistan’s blueprint, reclaiming destinies from power’s shadows.
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