The United States has officially extended an offer to sell the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet to India, a move that could significantly alter the regional defense landscape. However, India is highly unlikely to accept the deal, and for good reason. While the offer comes amid growing military cooperation between Washington and New Delhi, multiple geopolitical, financial, and technical barriers make the acquisition of the F-35 an improbable outcome. Instead, India is actively pursuing alternative defense projects and strategic partnerships.
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Why India is Unlikely to Buy the F-35
1. The Russian Factor – S-400 Deal & Existing Defense Ties
One of the biggest hurdles to an F-35 purchase is India's existing contract with Russia for the S-400 Triumf air defense system. The U.S. has repeatedly opposed any country operating both the F-35 and the S-400, citing security risks that the Russian system could compromise the stealth jet’s radar-evading technology. Given that India is already inducting the S-400 under a $5.43 billion deal signed in 2018, abandoning it for the F-35 is not a viable option.
Additionally, India has maintained a long-standing defense relationship with Russia, which supplies a significant portion of its military hardware, including the Su-30MKI, T-90 tanks, and the upcoming Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter.
2. The Cost Factor – A Heavy Burden
As of July 2024, the average flyaway costs per plane are:
F-35A – $82.5 million
F-35B – $109 million
F-35C – $102.1 million
However, these figures only account for the purchase price and do not include life-cycle costs, operational expenses, and expensive maintenance requirements, which significantly increase the overall burden. Given India's tight defense budget and the need for fleet expansion, the F-35’s high costs make it an impractical choice.
Poor Reputation of the F-35
The F-35’s troubled legacy further diminishes its appeal. The aircraft has been plagued by reliability issues, with mission readiness rates hovering around 51%, far below the targeted 65%. Since 2018, the F-35 has been involved in 11 crashes, raising serious concerns about its safety and operational suitability.
A 2024 report by the U.S. Director of Operational Test and Evaluation highlighted ongoing challenges with the F-35’s reliability, maintainability, and availability. Additionally, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted that the costs to sustain the F-35 fleet have ballooned from 1.1 trillion in 2018 to 1.58 trillion in 2023. These issues have tarnished the F-35’s reputation, making it a less attractive option for India.
3. Strategic Independence at Risk
A senior Indian defense official recently stated that acquiring the F-35 could pull India deeper into the U.S. sphere of influence, potentially affecting its strategic autonomy. Historically, India has preferred a diversified defense procurement approach, sourcing from Russia, France, and other nations, while avoiding deep entanglements with the U.S. India’s reluctance to buy American fighter jets stems from decades of mistrust and concerns over Washington’s reliability as a defense supplier. This skepticism has been reinforced by past incidents, such as the penalties levied on GE Aerospace for failing to deliver engines for India’s Light Combat Aircraft Mk1A, delaying the Indian Air Force’s modernization plans.
4. AMCA – India’s Indigenous Fifth-Generation Fighter Program
India has been actively working on its own fifth-generation fighter jet, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The government recently approved Rs 15,000 crore for its development, with a planned timeline of over a decade. While the AMCA project is still in its early stages, India is unlikely to risk undermining its domestic fighter jet program by investing in the F-35.
5. India’s Preference for Su-57 Over F-35
Given its long history of operating Russian aircraft, India is more inclined to opt for the Su-57 Felon—a next-generation Russian stealth fighter that aligns with India’s existing fleet and operational doctrines. Unlike the F-35, the Su-57 does not come with stringent U.S. end-use monitoring restrictions and offers better integration with India’s existing weapons systems.
India and U.S. Strengthening Defense Ties – Beyond the F-35
Despite rejecting the F-35, India and the U.S. continue to enhance their military partnership in other areas.
1. Expansion of P-8I Maritime Patrol Fleet
India is set to purchase six more P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft, strengthening its naval surveillance and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. The P-8I, a derivative of the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, has proven to be a valuable asset for the Indian Navy.
2. Joint Production of Armored Vehicles and Missiles
The U.S. and India are advancing cooperation in Stryker armored vehicles and Javelin anti-tank missiles, marking a significant step toward joint defense production. These agreements align with India’s push for defense indigenization under the ‘Make in India’ initiative.
3. New Defense Agreements & ASIA Initiative
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to increase military cooperation across air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace. India and the U.S. plan to:
Launch the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) to streamline defense trade and technological collaboration.
Sign a new 10-year defense partnership agreement to replace the 2015 deal.
Facilitate greater interoperability between Indian and American forces.
Pakistan’s Response & Future Considerations
Pakistan has strongly cautioned the United States against exacerbating military imbalances in South Asia by offering India advanced military technologies. However, Islamabad remains largely unaffected by the F-35 debate, as it is already exploring the acquisition of China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon and, in the longer run, the J-35 Grey Falcon to counter India’s growing air power.
Conclusion – India Will Look Elsewhere
The U.S. offer of the F-35 to India is a strategic gambit with high stakes. However, given the F-35’s poor reputation, exorbitant costs, and geopolitical complications, India is unlikely to pursue the deal. Instead, New Delhi is more likely to focus on alternatives like the Su-57, Rafale, and its indigenous AMCA program.
As India balances its military procurement between various global suppliers, it remains steadfast in preserving its autonomy in defense decisions. The rejection of the F-35 signals India’s commitment to strategic independence and highlights the evolving dynamics of global arms deals.
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